The Bangkok Post today is reporting that the Thai economy is shrinking:
The Thai economy contracted by as much as 3.5% in the fourth quarter, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.
…
The FPO, the economic policy agency of the Finance Ministry, urged the Bank of Thailand yesterday to “rethink” its foreign-exchange policies to help struggling exporters.
…
Dr Somchai suggested that the central bank consider a “competitive devaluation” for the baht to prop up exports.
But central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said earlier this week that a weak baht policy could further undermine market confidence in the Thai economy, and that the baht was not uncompetitive relative to the country’s trading peers.
5 responses so far ↓
nurseRon // Saturday, 31 January 2009 at 1:26 pm |
does this mean I should sell the 50K THB I have locked up in Kasikorn?
I think I bought in at around 34-35 ish?
// Saturday, 31 January 2009 at 3:22 pm |
Depends on whether you expect the Central Bank or the Finance Ministry to prevail, and by how much.
Seriously, I doubt that any movement would be significant enough to bother with for 50K baht.
Myself? I’d be betting on K. Tarisa; she seems to be pretty tough and always seems to get her way. She may be the most competent high-profile politician/bureaucrat in Thailand. If so, that would argue that you take no action.
Of course, one good option would be to loan the 50K to me, repayable on demand. I’m currently carrying a stupid interest rate (22%?) on 50K worth of credit card debt. I’d be happy to pay you 5% interest for 6 months. ;~)
Current exchange rate on my US money to THB is 34.2 at the ATM. Hasn’t changed for several weeks.
Tosh // Saturday, 31 January 2009 at 11:09 pm |
@ Ron – it depends on your time horizon. If you need it in an amount of time you count in months, I might suggest you move it into another (cheap) currency that might be a bit less volatile. If you don’t need it for a few years, I think emerging markets in general and Thailand in particular look cheap now. So you’ll probably get paid off better if you have a longer plan for that money.
Whatever you do, don’t buy GBP with it.
NurseRon // Sunday, 1 February 2009 at 7:07 am |
Looks inviting though! I don’t have any research but has the pound ever been this cheep?
generous sponsor // Monday, 2 February 2009 at 3:45 pm |
yeah, it got down to near parity in the early 80’s. ever since bretton woods its been on a slow and fairly steady decline against the dollar. bound to get worse with less north sea oil revenues, aging population, no natural resources, unfunded benefit plans, etc.
the canadian loonie, now that ’s another story.